{"id":352,"date":"2026-08-11T17:30:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T17:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usabusinesschronicle.com\/?p=352"},"modified":"2026-08-11T17:30:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T17:30:57","slug":"internal-polls-flopped-in-michigan-and-hawaii-how-will-they-do-in-minnesota-and-wisconsin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usabusinesschronicle.com\/?p=352","title":{"rendered":"Internal Polls Flopped in Michigan and Hawaii. How Will They Do in Minnesota and Wisconsin?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

In a mid-July column, I detailed how internal polls, combined with scarce independent polling, warped perceptions of Graham Platner\u2019s electoral resilience in Maine\u2019s Senate race before he bowed out. I further raised an eyebrow at the flurry of internal polls showing fat leads for Abdul El-Sayed over Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan\u2019s Democratic Senate primary, when other springtime polls depicted a much closer race. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more What is Political Courage?<\/a><\/p>\n

Prompted in part by the internal polls, the former Wayne County health department chief and left-wing insurgent was crowned the frontrunner by mainstream media outlets. Several independent polls very late in the campaign echoed El-Sayed\u2019s internals, firming up the media narrative. Two days before Election Day, a rumor shot through the X social media platform that Stevens\u2019 own pollster told the candidate she was down 14 points and had \u201cno path to victory.\u201d The pollster denied it, but the rumor further fed a perception that the cake was baked.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Yet my earlier skepticism proved warranted. El-Sayed beat Stevens, but by a single percentage point, not the double digits forecast by the surveys affiliated with his campaign. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The colossal miss raises the question of whether El-Sayed\u2019s internal poll flex led to a case of \u201cherding,\u201d the polling phenomenon once described by Nate Silver as \u201cfile-drawering (not publishing) results that don\u2019t match the consensus or torturing their turnout models until they do.\u201d Following the surprise Michigan result, The New York Times<\/em> noted the challenge for pollsters to <\/em>anticipate the demographic mix of primary election turnout: \u201cConducting surveys in partisan primaries has long presented a challenge to pollsters, as it requires them to make assumptions about who will actually turn out to vote. Without mandatory party registration in Michigan, pollsters must guess who will show up on Election Day.\u201d Fearful of becoming an embarrassing outlier, \u201cindependent\u201d pollsters had an incentive to make like-minded guesses.\u00a0<\/p>\n

One pollster who worked for a pro-El-Sayed political action committee, Zenith Research\u2019s Adam Carlson, published a post-mortem in which he acknowledged his turnout model \u201cundershot\u201d demographic groups favorable to Stevens: senior, low-income, and rural voters. One possible explanation Carlson offered is that his company uses \u201ctext-to-web\u201d technology to reach out to potential respondents, as opposed to more expensive \u201clive calling,\u201d which may have tilted the respondent pool towards younger votes more partial to El-Sayed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Less noticed over the weekend was Hawaii\u2019s First Congressional District Democratic primary, which pitted moderate incumbent Ed Case against progressive challenger State Senator Jarrett Keohokalole. No independent pollster surveyed the race. Then on August 6, two days before the primary, two sets of Keohokalole\u2019s internal polls were leaked to Jewish Insider<\/em>: one from early July with Case up 8 and one in late July with Keohokalole seizing a 7-point lead. The attempt to show late momentum proved futile. Case won by 21 points. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Perhaps the only immediate victims of the Keohokalole poll push were bettors on political prediction markets, as in the final hours of the campaign, for no obvious reason but this tiny wisp of poll data, traders on the Kalshi platform suddenly deemed Keohokalole the favorite and pushed his win-probability to 70 percent. But as I noted in last month\u2019s column, we all have reason to worry about being manipulated by internal polls: \u201cthe decline of professional polling from media outlets leaves us more vulnerable to spin polls from campaigns. That vulnerability was cannily seized by the Platner campaign, to the detriment of Maine Democrats who perhaps wanted to believe a little too much what the numbers seemed to say.\u201d In the case of Michigan, false perceptions that El-Sayed was a lock risked misleading eligible voters that they need not bother to vote. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s primaries will be held in six states, but Democratic eyes are most fixated on the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary and Minnesota\u2019s Senate primary. The Minnesota contest, pitting the state\u2019s progressive Lieutenant Governor against the moderate congresswoman Angie Craig, will provide another test for internal polls, though we don\u2019t have the makings of a herding problem. Only two pollsters have sampled the race in the past two months: Public Policy Polling, working on behalf of the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which has a political action committee backing Flanagan, and SurveyUSA, which polls for several local TV stations. Public Policy Polling claims Flanagan has widened her lead from 7 to 14 over the course of July. SurveyUSA found a dead heat in mid-July but now sees Craig opening up a slight 2-point edge. At the very least, SurveyUSA has not been influenced by the Flanagan internals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Wisconsin gubernatorial election has been one of the most challenging races to poll because who is actually running keeps changing. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley suspended his campaign in early July and endorsed Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez. One week later, Rodriguez suspended her campaign after firing her campaign manager over accusations of mismanaging finances. Crowley then re-entered the race with the endorsement of incumbent Governor Tony Evers. At the end of July, former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes dropped out, concluding he had no path to victory. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Burning the Past to Build the Future<\/a><\/p>\n

Meanwhile Assemblywoman Francesca Hong, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, has been the steady plurality poll leader of a fractured field, despite a string of awkward media interviews focused on her past controversial social media posts. Notably, unlike all the other progressive candidates mentioned above, the Hong campaign has not published any internal polls and can\u2019t be accused of trying to use polls to shape a media narrative. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The one remaining candidate publishing internal polls is Crowley. Using Public Policy Polling, Crowley has published two sets of internals since re-entering the race. Most unusual for internal polls, they show the candidate who paid for them losing by nearly 20 points.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So why is Crowley making them public? Because the campaign\u2019s most recent poll re-asked respondents who they support after hearing unspecified information about Crowley and Hong. And then the Public Policy Polling crew further tweaked the generational demographics of the voter pool to reflect the 2022 electorate, increasing the share of older voters. After all that extra work, the race . \u00a0<\/p>\n

Is the Crowley campaign using a convoluted internal poll to make a strained case they have a shot tonight? Or is it plausible that the poll reflects belatedly materializing anxiety about Hong yet to be detected by other polls, and\u2014as with Michigan\u2014bad turnout assumptions made by other pollsters? \u00a0<\/p>\n

Keep in mind that we have very little independent polling in Wisconsin. Marquette Law School has long produced highly respected polling in the Badger State, and its last poll had Hong leading by 25 points. But that poll was sampled in late July before Barnes dropped out and hasn\u2019t gone back into the field since. If the electorate soured on Hong in the final days, as Governor Evers has been sharply questioning her electability while campaigning with Crowley, Marquette\u2019s pollsters wouldn\u2019t know. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The only other independent poll comes from the upstart text-to-web operation State Navigate, which showing Hong up by 22 points. But cognizant of the polling miss in Michigan, the State Navigate team cautioned, \u201cthe error in Michigan seems to be due to multiple factors, including, but potentially not limited to: El-Sayed voters being more eager to answer polls, non-response biases among lower-income voters, underweighting voters above the age of 65, and inaccurately capturing rural voters. But to be clear, it is impossible to weight this survey (or any of the recent ones) out of the possibility that Hong\u2019s voters are just more eager to answer surveys.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Might Crowley\u2019s final internal poll end up being more accurate<\/em> than independent polling? We\u2019ll find out tonight.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more The Disintegration of the U.S. Military Under Trump and Beyond<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Campaign polls overstated progressive strength in Michigan and Hawaii. Tonight\u2019s primaries will offer another test.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":351,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,18,2],"tags":[148],"class_list":["post-352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-higher-education","category-law-and-justice","category-politics","tag-tagged-abdul-el-sayed-angie-craig-david-crowley-democratic-primaries-francesca-hong-haley-stevens-internal-polls-minnesota-senate-peggy-flanagan"],"yoast_head":"\nInternal Polls Flopped in Michigan and Hawaii. 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