{"id":223,"date":"2026-06-29T09:07:38","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T09:07:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usabusinesschronicle.com\/?p=223"},"modified":"2026-06-29T09:07:38","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T09:07:38","slug":"the-strait-of-hormuz-is-irans-nuclear-weapon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usabusinesschronicle.com\/?p=223","title":{"rendered":"The Strait of Hormuz is Iran\u2019s Nuclear Weapon"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As you may have noticed, the U.S. and Iran are still skirmishing in the Strait of Hormuz. And Donald Trump is still issuing bombastic threats. If the Iranians don\u2019t bend to his will, Trump said last week, \u201cthe Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to exist!\u201d<\/p>\n

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Get used to hearing that. When the 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by the two nations expires later this summer, we\u2019ll see even more acrimony, even as the terms will allow tens of billions of dollars to flow into Iran with no strings attached. Of course that will allow the Iranians to rebuild their defenses. Trump has already said they have a right to deploy missiles. Meanwhile, Iran\u2019s control of the Strait of Hormuz will give it a hammer over the head of the global economy for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

There was a better way. In 2015, I went to Israel and interviewed a former head of\u00a0Shin Bet\u00a0(Israel Security Agency), a former head of\u00a0Mossad,<\/strong>\u00a0and four or five other security officials. I asked what they thought of the Iran nuclear deal known as the\u00a0JCPOA\u00a0(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), negotiated by the Obama Administration with the backing of China, Russia and most of the rest of the world.<\/p>\n

Their first reaction was that Obama was \u201ca terrible negotiator.\u201d But when I followed up by asking if that meant they were against the deal itself, the answer was no.They told me that if you can force Iran to export almost all of its highly enriched uranium and get tight inspections, which is what the deal did, that\u2019s a real win. And they said that when the deal expired, there would be a clear basis for renewing it under favorable terms. All of these former officials insisted on anonymity, because saying publicly that the deal was a good one was \u201csuicide in Israeli politics.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 2018, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu killed the JCPOA. It\u2019s now clear this will be seen by historians as a tragic mistake. Over the last few weeks, I spoke to two experts on Iran.\u00a0Gary Sick, who served on the National Security Council under President Carter, is a long-time Columbia professor. In 2023, he and I co-authored\u00a0an article in the<\/em>\u00a0New Republic<\/em>\u00a0about \u201cThe October Surprise,\u201d\u00a0the plot by Reagan campaign officials to delay the release of the American hostages in Iran until after the 1980 election.\u00a0Ray Takeyh\u00a0is a former State Department official and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.<\/p>\n

Excerpts from some of their comments, oral and written:<\/p>\n

GARY SICK:<\/strong><\/p>\n

The reality is that Iran is a nation of negotiators. As a middle-level power, Iran is always trying to get leverage wherever it can, and they\u2019ve been doing so very effectively. We used to joke when we were sitting around the White House about how we play checkers, and Iran plays chess. They invented the game we call chess, and they\u2019re good at it.<\/p>\n

This is a group that spent two full years negotiating with the Obama administration and produced a remarkable document at the end. On the front page of that document, the Iranians insisted that the U.S. put in a sentence saying that under no circumstances will Iran ever [import], develop, store, or use nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

At my first meeting with the Iranians, at Columbia, maybe 40 years ago, the people who worked on strategy were the first ones to tell me they did not want to build a nuclear weapon. All the Americans in that group said, \u201cCome on, we know they\u2019re not telling the truth. You\u2019d have to be naive to buy this.\u201d But the reality is that Bibi has been saying for literally 40 years that Iran would have a nuclear weapon within five years unless we did something about it. He\u2019s been making that same statement endlessly, and they never have.<\/p>\n

Now they don\u2019t need to. Trump has given them something even greater than a nuclear weapon to use as leverage against us. I can just see people sitting in their Situation Room in Iran saying, \u201cOkay, we don\u2019t really need anything else. If we just look askance, all of a sudden insurance rates around the world go sky-high, and we stop traffic coming out of the Strait of Hormuz.\u201d That is a huge thing for Iran, and we\u2019ve given it to them because of our bombing. We have basically gifted Iran with the chance to turn on and turn off international relations and international trade whenever they choose to.<\/p>\n

They weren\u2019t joking when they said they weren\u2019t going to build a nuclear weapon, but they have used the nuclear issue like a hostage\u2014something they can leverage. They run material through centrifuges and increase the yield of the materials they\u2019re working with, and we\u2019ve treated that, basically, as a threat to build a nuclear weapon. But you may have noticed that, despite the 40 or 50 years that have gone by, when they reach 60% enriched uranium, what do they do with it? In the end, it gets buried. They did the same thing with other materials they obtained earlier. Our national intelligence services, over and over again, have come to the conclusion that yes, Iran is building a nuclear infrastructure, but it has not made the decision to build a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n

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The biggest trouble Trump is going to have in the next election is explaining this basic problem: that he has not done what he said he was going to do, and that he\u2019s put America\u2019s economic interests in the hands of people who are really our enemies. That\u2019s a hard question for him to answer, tricks or no tricks.<\/p>\n

RAY TAKEYH:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wars are defined by their narratives. The much-touted Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the United States has been received very differently in each country. Americans speak of peace; Iranians proclaim victory. The agreement that was finally released closely resembles the fourteen-point plan that Tehran has been promoting for months. Its most consequential provision is the decision by the United States and Iran to lift their respective blockades on maritime traffic through the Persian Gulf and then spend the next two months resolving all remaining issues. It is difficult to see how this timetable can be sustained, and extensions are likely to come.<\/p>\n

Thus far, the Iranians have succeeded in setting the agenda. The nuclear issue is not in the MOU, but Israel\u2019s conduct in Lebanon is. Indeed, when Israel took military action in Lebanon, the agreement nearly collapsed. The next rounds of negotiations are likely to be difficult and may well end in a stalemate. Tehran has already made clear that it will not ship out its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and the mullahs have little confidence in the International Atomic Energy Agency or its director, Rafael Grossi, whom they blame for facilitating the attacks on their nuclear facilities by issuing critical reports in the run-up to the war.<\/p>\n

Nor has the Islamic Republic given up its attempt to monetize its geography. The MOU itself stipulates:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cThe Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Tolls can take many forms\u2014transit fees, or payments in exchange for refraining from attacking the Gulf sheikdoms. The former would constitute a formal arrangement; the latter is the prerogative of an imperial power [Iran extracting tribute]. The war reveals much about mediations of power in the twenty-first century. In the end, the overwhelming imbalance of military power mattered less than expected. Iran managed to frustrate a superpower with relatively primitive technologies such as drones and speedboats.<\/p>\n

Like many leaders who launch preventive wars, Donald Trump assumed that the benefits would outweigh the costs and that the enemy would ultimately accept terms dictated by Washington.<\/p>\n

Instead, after being bombed twice in the span of nine months, the Iranians came to regard the conflict as existential and were determined to ensure that the United States understood the price of its belligerence. By all appearances, they succeeded.<\/p>\n

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The Strait of Hormuz is Iran\u2019s nuclear weapon: Two Iran experts on how the U.S.plays checkers and Iran plays chess.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":222,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,11,8,2],"tags":[89],"class_list":["post-223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-books","category-economy","category-higher-education","category-politics","tag-tagged-benjamin-netanyahu-donald-trump-foreign-policy-gary-sick-iran-iran-nuclear-deal-jcpoa-middle-east-national-security-ray-takeyh-strai"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Strait of Hormuz is Iran\u2019s Nuclear Weapon - USA Business Chronicle<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/usabusinesschronicle.com\/?p=223\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Strait of Hormuz is Iran\u2019s Nuclear Weapon - 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