{"id":201,"date":"2026-06-23T09:37:22","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T09:37:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/usabusinesschronicle.com\/?p=201"},"modified":"2026-06-23T09:37:22","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T09:37:22","slug":"any-iran-deal-will-fail-without-a-two-state-solution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usabusinesschronicle.com\/?p=201","title":{"rendered":"Any Iran Deal Will Fail Without a Two-State Solution\u00a0\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The first paragraph of the\u00a0Memorandum of Understanding\u00a0between the Iranian government and the Donald Trump administration declares \u201cthe immediate and permanent termination of military operations\u201d in Lebanon, foresees a \u201cfinal deal\u201d that\u00a0confirms\u00a0\u201cthe permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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This\u00a0was\u00a0strange\u00a0because the United States was not fighting a war in Lebanon. It is Israel\u00a0that\u00a0has been conducting military operations in Lebanon against Iran\u2019s\u00a0Shia Islamist\u00a0proxy,\u00a0Hezbollah.\u00a0But Israel is not a party to the Memorandum of Understanding.\u00a0Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said,\u00a0upon\u00a0its\u00a0signing, coolly,\u00a0\u201cWe have our own interests.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

In fact,\u00a0ever\u00a0since\u00a0April,\u00a0when Trump first announced a ceasefire with Iran,\u00a0Israel has continued\u00a0attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.\u00a0The Memorandum of Understanding, signed on June 17,\u00a0was supposed to open the Strait of Hormuz; the fifth paragraph assures, \u201cthe Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for\u00a060 days\u00a0only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa.\u201d\u00a0But by June 20,\u00a0Iran\u00a0announced it had\u00a0re-closed the Strait\u00a0because of the \u201cblatant breach of the first clause of the memorandum of understanding.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Instead of admitting the Memorandum of Understanding has failed to fulfill its limited\u00a0objective\u2014re-opening the Strait as talks\u00a0regarding\u00a0Iran\u2019s nuclear program\u00a0continue\u2014President Donald Trump\u00a0is\u00a0telling everyone to join\u00a0him\u00a0in Fantasy Land.\u00a0On Sunday,\u00a0he claimed on his social media website, \u201cWhile a trickle of ships has\u00a0been getting through with U.S help close to Oman\u2019s shoreline,\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0a far cry from\u00a0the Strait truly being open. As Ian Ralby, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for Maritime Security, told\u00a0CBC News,\u00a0\u201c\u2018Open\u2019 to the U.S. seems to mean something different than it does the shipping industry, which, I think,\u00a0largely feels\u00a0that it\u00a0remains\u00a0closed.\u201d\u00a0Meanwhile, Trump is giving Iran more goodies\u2014ending\u00a0sanctions on Iran\u2019s oil exports, which was supposed to be a reward for reopening the Strait.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump, in his insatiable quest for a Nobel Peace Prize, is constantly looking for ribbon-cutting photo opportunities on the diplomatic stage. As we have learned,\u00a0he\u2019s\u00a0even willing to start a war just\u00a0to\u00a0take credit for\u00a0the peace. But what he is not willing to do is the\u00a0painstaking diplomacy\u00a0required\u00a0to resolve decades-old disagreements\u00a0to ensure any peace agreement endures beyond the handshakes.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As anyone who has\u00a0actually\u00a0conducted\u00a0Middle East diplomacy can tell you,\u00a0bridging\u00a0the gulfs\u00a0between Israelis, Arabs, and Iranians has long been a high-risk, low-reward endeavor. Disputes run\u00a0deep,\u00a0and\u00a0deals usually\u00a0disintegrate.\u00a0For example,\u00a0Bill Clinton spent two terms\u00a0working with Israelis and Palestinians to try to forge a two-state solution. He secured\u00a0the preliminary Oslo Accords in his first term\u00a0only to come up short\u00a0for a final agreement\u00a0at the Camp David Summit\u00a0during the summer of his last year in office.\u00a0Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak coughed up major concessions under massive pressure from Clinton, but\u00a0Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat\u00a0proved\u00a0unwilling to accept.\u00a0In Clinton\u2019s last week in office, Arafat privately told Clinton he was \u201ca great man,\u201d and Clinton shot back,\u00a0\u201cThe hell I am. I\u2019m a colossal failure,\u00a0and you made me one.\u201d\u00a0Trump would never\u00a0walk on such a diplomatic high-wire and risk a devastating fall.\u00a0That\u2019s\u00a0why Vice President JD Vance is taking the lead on talks with Iran. \u201cIf it works out,\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0going to take the credit,\u201d\u00a0blithely admitted Trump,\u00a0\u201cIf it\u00a0doesn\u2019t\u00a0work out,\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0blaming JD.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Barack Obama\u00a0had the misfortune of serving as president alongside an Israeli Prime Minister,\u00a0Netanyahu, who was\u00a0completely uninterested in a two-state solution.\u00a0But\u00a0in his second\u00a0term,\u00a0after years of difficult diplomacy,\u00a0Obama\u00a0achieved\u00a0a diplomatic breakthrough. Working with\u00a0several European nations and Russia, Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry\u00a0successfully negotiated\u00a0a program to\u00a0contain\u00a0Iran\u2019s nuclear program.\u00a0However, Netanyahu was not on board, seeing Iran\u2019s regime as an existential threat to destroy, not to bargain with. He brazenly came to the U.S. Congress to trash\u00a0Obama\u2019s deal,\u00a0hardening Republican opposition and setting the stage for Trump to abandon\u00a0it\u00a0in 2018.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump, instead\u00a0of his claims to be the ultimate peacemaker, gave Netanyahu\u00a0what\u00a0he long craved: a military operation\u00a0intended to overthrow the Iranian government.\u00a0According to the\u00a0Jerusalem Post,<\/em>\u201cin many ways, the US was the originator of the idea of toppling the Islamic regime by using the Kurds to initiate an internal ground thrust\u201d and \u201cIsrael was prepared to provide the Kurds not only with a no-fly zone, but with continuous aerial firepower.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

But\u00a0while Operation Epic Fury went forward, including the assassination of Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader and other\u00a0top\u00a0government officials,\u00a0the plan\u00a0to fully topple the regime\u00a0was mysteriously\u2014and\u00a0probably wisely\u2014shelved.\u00a0\u201cEven within Israel, some officials doubted that such an operation would work,\u201d noted the\u00a0Jerusalem Post<\/em>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The plan included an\u00a0additional, fantastical layer: installing as Iran\u2019s new leader,\u00a0Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president and once-provocative face of Iran\u2019s nuclear program, but who has been under house arrest after accusing the current regime\u00a0of\u00a0corruption.\u00a0The New York Times<\/em>\u00a0reported last month\u00a0that Ahmadinejad\u00a0was \u201cinjured on the war\u2019s first day by an Israeli strike at his home in Tehran that had been designed to free him\u201d and \u201cafter the near miss,\u00a0he became disillusioned with the regime change plan.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cThere is a debate regarding whether US President Donald Trump was convinced to veto the operation by some of his own top officials, or by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,\u201d reports the\u00a0Jerusalem Post<\/em>, \u201cIsraeli sources have accused American officials within the White House\u2014many point to US Vice President JD Vance \u2026 of leaking the plan to Erdogan to help the Turkish president get to Trump in time to stop the operation before it could be rolled out.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

When the bombing and the assassinations\u00a0weren\u2019t\u00a0enough to trigger an overthrow,\u00a0Trump reset the bar for success at\u00a0containing\u00a0Iran\u2019s nuclear program, driving a wedge between himself and Netanyahu. While Trump has\u00a0ended Operation Epic Fury, he has done nothing\u00a0to\u00a0resolve any underlying agreements, leaving any attempt at a broader peace agreement with Iran at the mercy of Israel\u2019s recalcitrance.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The broader lesson to draw\u00a0from the failures\u00a0of Operation Epic Fury and the Memorandum of Understanding\u00a0is that there are no shortcuts to Middle\u00a0East peace\u00a0that bypass a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians, as difficult as that task\u00a0remains.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Yet that is not the lesson the current Israeli government is drawing. This month,\u00a0Israel installed a new\u00a0intelligence agency chief\u00a0who, according to the\u00a0Jerusalem Post<\/em>, is\u00a0just as committed as his predecessor to developing a plan to overthrow the Iranian government.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A revitalized\u00a0two-state peace process\u00a0requires willing partners, and the first step is a change in\u00a0the Israeli government, which will require a\u00a0dramatic\u00a0change in attitude from the Israeli electorate.\u00a0While\u00a0Netanyahu may lose power in the next parliamentary election slated for this\u00a0year,\u00a0it is not at all clear\u00a0yet\u00a0that a successor\u00a0government\u00a0would\u00a0publicly state\u00a0support for a two-state peace process.\u00a0However,\u00a0constructive\u00a0and thoughtful American pressure may help, as it did during Bill Clinton\u2019s tenure,\u00a0when Israel moved a long way towards a comprehensive resolution.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s ribbon-cutting impulses\u00a0in theory could push Israel in the right direction, but they are only impulses. He knows how to scold,\u00a0as he did\u00a0last week\u00a0when he chastised Israel\u2019s military operations in Lebanon\u2014said Trump,\u00a0\u201cYou don\u2019t have to knock down an apartment house every time you\u2019re looking for somebody.\u201d But Trump is too impulsive\u00a0and too unprincipled\u00a0to\u00a0apply consistently effective\u00a0pressure, which is why his demands are often ignored by not only\u00a0Israel\u00a0but also Iran, Ukraine,\u00a0and Russia.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Diplomacy is hard,\u00a0and Middle Eastern diplomacy is the hardest of all. It requires principle, patience, willingness to\u00a0sacrifice personal political capital,\u00a0and a basic faith in humanity,\u00a0none of which can be expected of Trump\u00a0or Netanyahu. But\u00a0the rest of us, in America and Israel, must try to learn the correct lessons\u00a0from Trump and Netanyahu\u2019s shared debacle if we are ever to achieve peace.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Read more Stopping Trump\u2019s Rolling Coup<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump wants quick diplomatic wins. But peace agreements that dodge the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are built to collapse.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":200,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,2,76,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-podcast","category-politics","category-protecting-the-vote","category-the-monopolized-economy"],"yoast_head":"\nAny Iran Deal Will Fail Without a Two-State Solution\u00a0\u00a0 - USA Business Chronicle<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/usabusinesschronicle.com\/?p=201\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Any Iran Deal Will Fail Without a Two-State Solution\u00a0\u00a0 - USA Business Chronicle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Trump wants quick diplomatic wins. 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